Who is actually buying homes right now?

The latest insight from National Association of Realtors reports:

• First-time buyers are disappearing. They made up just 21% of all buyers—the lowest since 1981. The median age for this group is 40.
• Cash offers are everywhere. 26% of purchases were all-cash, almost entirely from repeat buyers sitting on major equity.
• Older buyers are driving the market. Repeat buyers average 62 years old and sellers 64. This group has equity, motivation, and often multiple properties.
• Down payments are way up. The median down payment is 19%, and repeat buyers are coming in at 23%.
• Fewer families, more long-term living. Only 24% of buyers have kids under 18, and buyers now plan to stay put 15 years on average. The "starter home" mindset is fading.
• New construction is back. 16% of all purchases were new builds—the highest since 2006.

• Mortgage rates don’t move off the Fed directly — they track the 10-year Treasury, plus a spread. Over the last few years, that spread has averaged about 2.1–2.3%, wider than the 2010s but tighter than the peak volatility years.

• Most forecasts (Deloitte, Goldman, CBO) see the 10-year Treasury staying around 4–4.2% through the end of the decade
• That implies 30-year mortgage rates mostly living in the mid-6% range for the next several years

• A return to 3% rates isn’t in anyone’s forecast
• Modest dips? Yes. Big collapses? Unlikely without a recession or major shock
• This looks more like a “new normal” rate environment, not a temporary spike

• Waiting for a massive rate drop probably isn’t a winning strategy. The smarter play for many buyers is buying when life makes sense, then refinancing if and when opportunity shows up.

• 6.20% 30-yr fixed
• 5.75% 15-yr fixed
• 5.87% FHA/VA